Oct 30 (Reuters) – Different market themes collide in the coming week, with US midterm elections, key economic data, major tech earnings and a run of central bank meetings all set to test investors.
The US midterms will shape the political landscape for the next two years, while payrolls data will offer fresh clues on the health of the world’s biggest economy. Earnings from major technology and AI companies also come as enthusiasm for the AI trade shows signs of fading.
Elsewhere, several major central banks are due to meet, while investors continue to assess developments in key emerging markets including Brazil and Indonesia.
Here’s all you need to know about the coming week in financial markets by Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Rae Wee in Singapore, and Dhara Ranasinghe, Amanda Cooper, Sophie Kiderlin and Karin Strohecker in London.
1/ US CHOOSES A CONGRESS
Tuesday’s US midterm elections will determine whether Democrats can wrest control of Congress from President Donald Trump’s Republican party, potentially reshaping the policy outlook for markets.
Democrats are widely expected to win the House of Representatives, while control of the Senate remains less certain. Republicans have controlled both chambers during Trump’s first two years in office.
Should Democrats prevail, the prospect of tougher regulation on AI, including pushback on data centre expansion, is on investors’ radar, along with potentially greater scrutiny of Wall Street banks and crypto firms.
The outcome could also influence expectations for fiscal spending, while defence and healthcare stocks may be particularly sensitive to the result.
2/ DON’T GO ANYWHERE
Friday’s October non-farm payrolls report caps a busy week for the US economy and could provide fresh guidance on the Federal Reserve’s next move.
September data showed the economy added a lower-than-expected 29,000 jobs.
The labour market has remained resilient. Unemployment stood at 4.2% last month, while weekly jobless claims are hovering near 57-year lows.
The Fed on Wednesday left rates unchanged and upgraded its assessment of the economy to “strong” from “solid”.
Markets are pricing about an 80% chance of a Fed rate hike in December, reflecting some uncertainty over the timing of the next move. The payrolls number could bring some clarity.
3/ APPLE OF THE MARKET’S EYE
Apple, one of the “Magnificent 7” big tech giants, headlines the earnings calendar, along with some stars in the AI galaxy.
The AI trade is in particular focus after disappointing results from Google parent Alphabet, Amazon and Intel triggered sharp share-price declines.
Upcoming reports from Qualcomm and rival Advanced Micro Devices could either reinforce or challenge concerns that investor enthusiasm for AI is losing momentum.
Over in Europe, investors will also hear from companies exposed to Trump’s tariffs and higher energy prices stemming from the Iran war, including automakers BMW, Daimler, Ferrari and airlines Lufthansa, Ryanair and British Airways owner ICAG.
4/ CENTRAL BANK FUN, CONTINUED
Another week brings another packed schedule of central bank meetings. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its policy decision on Tuesday, followed by Sweden’s Riksbank on Wednesday and the Bank of England and Norges Bank on Thursday.
The Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan all left policy unchanged this week, but markets expect the RBA, Riksbank and BoE to raise rates.
It would be the fifth increase this year for Australia’s central bank as it battles stubborn inflation, but the first for Sweden and Britain.
Both have so far adopted a wait-and-see approach, but growing inflation risks are increasing the case for action.
Norway’s central bank is further along the tightening path, having already raised rates twice this year.
5/ A TALE OF TWO ROUNDS
Brazil’s central bank faces a more complicated backdrop after a dramatic election campaign overturned market expectations. Flavio Bolsonaro’s first-round victory initially buoyed markets, but Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s comeback win in the runoff reversed those gains, sending the real and equities sharply lower.
The political uncertainty has complicated an easing cycle that has brought interest rates down to 13.75%, making Wednesday’s policy decision and accompanying guidance a key focus for investors. Markets will also be watching for Lula’s choice of finance minister for signals on future fiscal policy.
In Indonesia, third-quarter GDP data due on Thursday will offer a fresh gauge of economic momentum. With the rupiah near record lows, investors are looking for signs of strain in Southeast Asia’s largest economy amid concerns over President Prabowo Subianto’s policies and his ambitious 8% growth target.
(Graphics by Kripa Jayaram, Compiled by Alun John. Editing by Mark Potter)
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