Oct 29 (Reuters) – Prediction market operator Polymarket is investigating a string of well-timed and profitable trades on Israel’s election this week, according to a report by Bloomberg News on Thursday.
Shortly before polls closed on Tuesday, hundreds of newly created accounts placed bets on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu retaining his position and his Likud party winning the most seats, the report said.
It added that those trades quickly became profitable — and together some of the accounts already cashed out over $100,000 — after some exit polls showed Netanyahu’s party had won more seats than early reports suggested.
Many wallets have significant gains that have not yet been realized, the report said.
Polymarket is reviewing dozens of newly created wallets that traded on the election, its internal investigative team told Bloomberg. Meanwhile, data analysis firms Polysights and Bubblemaps also flagged the activity as suspicious and said they were investigating, Bloomberg reported.
A representative for data analysis firm Bubblemaps told Reuters that 101 Polymarket accounts were funded for the first time on election day, before polls closed.
“A few have already sold out for a profit after the exit polls,” the representative said.
Prediction markets face growing scrutiny over potential insider trading, with platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi reporting a surge in suspicious activity amid a sharp increase in trading volumes. Reuters reported in May that Polymarket had seen a significant uptick in trades flagged as suspicious this year.
The findings are not conclusive, and it can be difficult to distinguish potential insider trading from original research or lucky bets, Bloomberg reported.
Representatives for Polymarket and Polysights did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
(Reporting by Prakhar Srivastava in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath and Diti Pujara)
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