May 8 (Reuters) – Molina Healthcare on Friday forecast its 2029 adjusted profit to be about five times its current 2026 outlook, given the health insurer is able to keep its medical costs in check.
However, at least two analysts said the profit forecast trailed investor expectations.
Shares of the company fell nearly 6% in early trading.
Molina projects revenue from premiums to be about $64 billion in 2029, compared with 2026 expectations of around $42 billion.
The company sees 2029 adjusted profit between $20 and $30 per share. It expects 2026 profit of at least $5 per share.
The initial 2029 adjusted profit target is “more realistic, but slightly below investor expectations,” Barclays analysts said.
The forecast indicates that Molina will “present significant earnings power in 2029; however, we think much of the investor focus is on the path to those earnings and any embedded conservatism,” J.P. Morgan analysts said.
The company said enrollment in government-backed Medicaid plans is expected to decline 2% to 3% annually through 2029, pressured by provisions in U.S. President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
Molina primarily sells Medicaid plans to low-income Americans that are jointly funded by state and federal governments. It also offers coverage under the Affordable Care Act, commonly known as Obamacare.
(Reporting by Mariam Sunny in Bengaluru; Editing by Shreya Biswas)
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