By Nora Buli and Gwladys Fouche
OSLO (Reuters) -Norway’s Green Party played a crucial role in the re-election of the Labour-led government on Monday by securing 4.7% of the vote and ensuring Labour and its allies have 87 seats in parliament – two more than needed to hold a majority.
Here is a look at the Greens’ main energy policy proposals, their potential impact, and how likely they are to come to pass:
WHAT DO THEY WANT TO DO?
The Greens want to halt new exploration at once and phase out existing petroleum activities by 2040.
At the same time, they say the country must remain a stable natural gas supplier to Europe in the short-term so the phase-out must be gradual and prioritise oil over gas fields.
That is important because Norway has become Europe’s largest gas supplier following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, providing one-third of all gas imports to the European Union.
Under its proposals, existing fields would be shut down one-by-one, starting with the ones that emit the most greenhouse gases, generate the least income and produce more oil than gas.
The Greens also want to stop investments aimed at increasing production or extending the lifespan of fields already in production, including projects to electrify offshore platforms with power from shore.
HOW WOULD THIS AFFECT THE STATE’S FINANCES?
Norway pools its state revenues from oil and gas production into a $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund – the world’s largest – which invests in bonds, equities, property and renewable energy projects abroad.
Under the Greens’ proposals, state revenues from petroleum would drop by some 70 billion crowns ($7.0 billion) a year, or 20% of total revenue for the period up to 2050, in a worst-case scenario that excludes any potential positive impact on revenue from emerging industries as part of the energy transition.
HOW LIKELY IS IT TO HAPPEN?
The Green Party is one of four parties Labour relies on for support. They all have their priorities and Norway’s oil and gas industry is one of several issues on the table. Still, Labour needs to pass its budget next month and it will rely on its allies, including the Greens, to do so.
The Greens are not expected to win on everything, but they will need some victories to show their supporters.
WHAT DOES EUROPE THINK?
The Greens say their plan would maintain steady gas supplies to Europe in the short run, while in the longer-term the EU itself plans to cut its emissions by 90-95% by 2040, meaning its demand for fossil fuels will fall.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote in a social media post on Tuesday that she would continue to work closely with Norway to advance a shared commitment to energy independence and a clean energy future.
WHICH FIELDS MIGHT BE SHUT AND WHEN?
In practice, the Greens’ plans could mean closing down the most-polluting Stafjord, Brage, Draugen and Ula fields first, followed by another eight by 2030 – including the Snoehvit field that supplies the Arctic Hammerfest liquefied natural gas plant.
“That will bring down the emissions from the fossil fuel industry, and it will also ensure that we take the competence, the people, and the capital from that sector over to renewables,” Green Party leader Arild Hermstad told Reuters.
Together, output from the first four fields with the highest emissions in 2024 stood at 5.33 million standard cubic metres of oil equivalent, or 2.2% of Norway’s total petroleum production, according to official data.
WHAT ABOUT POWER EXPORTS?
Several parties in Norway want to stop cross-border electricity exchanges and not renew interconnector cables – two cables to Denmark will need replacing by 2027. Not the Greens.
The party is a strong supporter of European climate objectives and wants non-EU Norway to collaborate closely with Brussels. The Nordic country participates in the union’s common market via the European Economic Area treaty.
($1 = 9.9776 Norwegian crowns)
(Reporting by Nora Buli and Gwladys Fouche; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
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