By Fergal Smith
TORONTO (Reuters) -The Canadian dollar was barely changed against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as oil prices rose and investors awaited domestic inflation data that could guide expectations for the Bank of Canada policy outlook.
The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3814 per U.S. dollar, or 72.39 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3784 to 1.3831.
Canada’s consumer price index report for July is due on Tuesday. Economists expect the annual rate of increase in consumer prices to ease to 1.8% from 1.9% in June, but measures of underlying inflation that are closely tracked by the BoC are forecast to remain well above the central bank’s 2% target.
“Tomorrow’s Canadian inflation report should remain too hot for comfort,” Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, said in a note.
“The central bank’s preferred trim and median core measures are likely to hold close to the 3% threshold for now as retaliatory tariffs and still-resilient consumer spending levels translate into upward pressure on prices.”
Investors see a 68% chance that the BoC would leave interest rates unchanged at its next policy decision on September 17. The central bank has been on hold since lowering the benchmark rate to 2.75% in March.
The price of oil, one of Canada’s major exports, was up 0.5% at $63.11 a barrel, while the U.S. dollar notched gains against a basket of major currencies.
Canadian housing starts unexpectedly rose in July, advancing 4% from the previous month, data from the national housing agency showed.
Data on Friday from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that speculators have raised their bearish bets on the Canadian dollar to the highest level since June.
The Canadian 10-year yield was up 2.7 basis points at 3.489%, after earlier touching its highest level since July 30 at 3.506%.
(Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Sharon Singleton)
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