BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) -Argentina’s inflation is forecast to have accelerated in September over August though the impact of recent currency volatility was probably limited, a Reuters poll showed.
Consumer price figures due on Tuesday will be closely scrutinized as the country approaches a key legislative vote at the end of October amid intense financial uncertainty.
Inflation likely sped up to 2.1% in September compared to 1.9% in August, according to the median estimate of 13 economists polled October 8-10.
The rise was probably led by adjustments in the costs of so-called “regulated services” like electricity, natural gas and water, economists said.
Little pass-through is expected from the volatile peso which first dropped last month following the opposition’s victory in a provincial vote but then recovered with initial announcements of U.S. support.
September’s 12-month rate is seen falling to the lowest in more than seven years, consolidating the biggest single success of President Javier Milei’s government that otherwise has been dealt a string of painful political defeats.
On the year, the consensus view pointed to a reduction of inflation to 31.8% in September – the lowest since July 2018 – against 33.6% in August.
“We see that for now, exchange rate instability has not reflected in consumer prices,” said Alejandro Giacoia, economist at Econviews.
The effect “will be somewhat higher in October, especially if markets assume the exchange rate policy is going to be modified,” he added.
Many analysts think the government will stop intervening to bolster the peso, instead letting it trade more freely after the October 26 election, where Milei’s party wants to expand its small presence in Congress.
However, this scenario may be reexamined after the U.S. Treasury weighed in last week to help contain pressures in a country where the value of the currency is a constant reference for price setting.
Another factor contributing to cooling inflation is a slower economy resulting from high interest rates as well as weaker demand due to Milei’s drive to slash spending and open trade to imported goods.
“We expect inflation to remain above 2% in the short-term,” said Aldo Abram, executive director at Fundacion Libertad y Progreso, noting currency swings already observed this year may keep trickling into consumer prices.
(Reporting and polling by Hernan Nessi and Gabriel Burin, Editing by William Maclean)
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