(Reuters) -Investors await U.S. President Donald Trump’s July 9 deadline for trade partners to strike deals on tariffs with a degree of equanimity, but what happens beyond that has the power to stir up more volatility and uncertainty.
The data docket for the coming week is light, leaving the focus squarely on tariffs – so far, the U.S. administration has a limited deal with Britain and in-principle agreement with Vietnam. Two down, just roughly 180 to go, including the penguin-populated Heard Island.
Here’s a look at the week ahead from Rocky Swift in Tokyo, Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Alun John, Marc Jones and Amanda Cooper in London.
1/ DEALS, OR NO DEALS?
With just days to go until the deadline, investors are on edge to see if the United States forges any agreements with trading partners as they seek to avoid higher levies.
Investors have circled this date for months. Trump paused many of the harshest U.S. tariffs for 90 days after his April 2 “Liberation Day” announcement roiled global markets.
The coming days could bring a number of scenarios. Some investors have speculated about more delays to allow for talks to continue, but Trump has said he is not thinking of extending the deadline. He even suggested he could impose a tariff of 30% or 35% on imports from Japan – well above the 24% rate he announced in April.
2/ SO MUCH WINNING
It may be a sign you’re not “winning” in trade talks with the Trump administration when you start attracting verbal broadsides like “spoiled” and “recalcitrant”.
That’s the position of Japan, facing the July 9 deadline before hefty tariffs take effect on its export-dependent economy.
Trump hinted at a “potential” deal in late April, but after multiple rounds of talks, none has emerged. He said last week he could set a tariff of “30% or 35% or whatever” on Japanese imports, far higher than the rate he announced on April 2.
Cars and rice are sticking points. Japan has vowed not to “sacrifice” its critical agriculture sector. And with autos being Japan’s biggest employer and export to the U.S., at nearly 30% of the total, Tokyo may feel it has no choice but to fight for a better deal.
3/ GILT TRIP
British bondholders are no strangers to crisis. The British government’s decision to scale back an unpopular reform of the welfare system, thereby blowing a 5-billion-pound hole in its budget plans and the visible upset of finance minister Rachel Reeves in parliament was all traders needed to unleash a blast of selling that revived memories of 2022.
Benchmark 10-year gilt yields shot up 21 basis points at one point and sterling fell as investors fretted Reeves’ job might be on the line, but reversed course after Prime Minister Keir Starmer publicly backed her.
Reeves is running out of wiggle-room and may be forced into tax hikes later this year. British consumers are already under pressure. The coming week’s data on house prices, car sales and economic growth may show more of those cracks.
4/ THE COMEBACK KID
2025 was meant to be European markets’ year, as erratic U.S. policymaking and a once-in-a-generation fiscal shift in Germany prompted investors to shift their money into Europe.
That’s still the case for the euro, but in equities-land, Wall Street is catching up fast.
The STOXX 600 benchmark is up 6.9% in 2025, just one percentage point above the S&P 500, a narrowing from around a 10-percentage point gap in March.
A storming few months for big tech – where Europe cannot compete – is driving much of U.S. performance. Poster child Nvidia hit a market value of $3.92 trillion on Thursday.
U.S.-friendly, or Europe-unfriendly, tariff developments in the coming days could see Wall Street overtake Europe on a year-to-date basis. Barring one day in April’s tariff sell-off, that’s not happened since early January.
5/ STABLE GENIUS
With the “One Big Beautiful Bill” done, House Republicans will start working on getting the Senate’s landmark stablecoin legislation — known as the GENIUS Act — passed and on to Trump’s desk.
Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a constant value. The act could see stablecoins explode from being worth around $250 billion now, to anywhere between $500 billion and $2 trillion in the next few years, depending on who you ask, but it is getting plenty of central bankers – and China – hot under the collar.
One fear, especially in emerging markets, is it will trigger the “dollarisation” of their economies, whereas many in the industrialised world warn stablecoins give too much control over money to private firms that experience shows can become very unstable very quickly.
(Compiled by Amanda Cooper; Graphics by Pasit Kongkunakornkul; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Alex Richardson)
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